Wednesday, 30 March 2011

When a 20-0 (15) fighter v an 18-0 (17) fighter is a bad fight

Sometimes in boxing you look too much at raw numbers and decide that a fight will be good or bad just on that. One such case is taking place on April 1st when Selcuk Aydin 20-0 (15) faces Dzmitry Lubachkin 18-0 (17). Should be good right? 2 Unbeaten, hard hitting punchers facing off in a fight that should mean a lot to both men, however it's not that simple.

Aydin, although lucky to defeat Canada based Romanian Jo Jo Dan last year is the WBC #1 contender, he holds the “Silver title” and is owed a fight with Andre Berto. In fact Aydin has every right to feel aggrieved that Victor Ortiz is next up for Berto in a HBO decided clash. Aydin is currently ranked #15 by Boxrec.com and #9 by the IBO, although not an elite fighter he's a good one, a powerful one and one that can really hurt his opponents. Although he has stamina issues (as shown against Dan) and lacks the technical skills and speed to be world class he's a very good fighter. A good fighter, but not a great fighter. Aydins last 7 wins have come against solid looking opponents with decent records. Jo Jo Dan was 26-0, Jackson Osei Bonsu was 30-2, Said Ouali was 25-2, Luis Hernandez was 23-2, Marat Khuzeev was 17-3-1, Lucky Lewele 25-4 and Farhad Bakirov 24-2-2. Those 7 opponents gave Aydin 56 rounds combined.

Lubachkin is someone we don't know much about. Back in February I actually wrote about him for this very blog. So lets just copy the raw numbers from that:
He has faced 13 debutants
He has never faced a fighter who was better than 1-1-1 (his 14th opponent- Aliaksandr Kuryanovich)
His opponents have a combined 1 win amongst them
The combined record of his 18 opponents have a record of 1-6-2

Now some more additional facts. Lubachkin has had 29 rounds recorded as a professional (Aydin has had 33 rounds in his 3 fights). Of those 29 rounds 10 came against debutant Siarhei Shoba in Lubachkin's 5th professional fight, the only one to have gone the distance. 4 of Lubachkin's first 6 fights haven't been fully recorded on boxrec.com, the site aren't sure of which round the fights were won in. Of the completely recorded fights on his record only Iliya Koltun has managed go more than 2 rounds(not including Shoba) with 9 fighters failing to make the 2nd round.

Aydin has more fights than the combined total of Lubachkin's opponents, he has more than twice as many rounds and the only thing Lubachkin has more of are KO's. On paper Lubachkin is the power puncher but when he faces Aydin it'll be obvious that the padded record will do the Belarussian no favours. Expect Aydin to stop Lubachkin whenever he wants.

Note-Lubachkin is a Light Middleweight whilst Aydin has been fighting at Welterweight, regardless Aydin will win with ease. The Turkish fighter is a big Welterweight and will only be giving away around an inch in height.

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